Could the 'Bradley Effect' Hurt Obama? Sen. Barack Obama has a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain, polls show, but those numbers could be deceiving if the "Bradley effect" comes into play. The Bradley effect is named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who ran for California governor in 1982. Exit polls showed Bradley leading by a wide margin, and the Democrat thought it would be an early election night. But Bradley and the polls were wrong. He lost to Republican George Deukmejian. The theory was that polling was wrong because some voters, who did not want to appear bigoted, said they voted for Bradley even though they did not. "People will usually tell you how they voted after the election, but we found in the Bradley campaign ... that people were actually not telling us who they voted for," said Charles Henry, who researched Bradley's election. The Bradley effect is also called the "Wilder effect," after Douglas Wilder, Virginia's former governor. He won by just one-tenth of a percent, but as he pointed out to CNN, "people forget -- in the exit polls, I was still double-digits ahead." According to CNN's latest poll of polls, Obama is leading McCain by 8 percentage points, 50 to 42. Some analysts say the race could be much closer or even tied if the Bradley effect is factored in. iReport.com: iReporter pleads with voters to 'stop the racism' "It leaves a question mark over this race, and we won't have the final answer until the votes are counted," said David Gergen, a senior political analyst for CNN.
I saw that a couple days ago. We had a mock election in school, for a couple reasons i dont feel like explaining, but i got 3 things out of that mock election: 1. Why the **** did they put the independent party on the ballot? Like 300 kids voted independent just to be fags. And there was a spot to write in your own candidate for some reason, so probably like 100 idiots voted there. 2. Obama had 900 votes. 300 went to McCain. WTF? And the next idea i heard many times. Alot of people seemed to think it for some reason, and noone i talked to didnt believe it was a VERY possible reality. 3. "Obama is going to get assassinated anyways" (edit: about the line above, some people think that is my opinion. It is not. I dont want it to happen, and i dont think it should happen. all i am saying is that people in my high school think that and i believe that it is a very real possibility.)
We had a mock election at our school also. 1200 something people voted for McCain and about 800 for Obama. They were the only two people we could choose from.
I'd only expect to see a significant "Bradley Effect in more southern, republican states....but then again they're already republican so I doubt you'll see anything too noticable. Some people may not vote for him because he is black, but some people may vote for him simply because he is black...I call it a wash.
draw the line that is not even what he was saying that people may be saying that they would vote for obama so that pollists would not think that they are racist
rememebr when reading that this is the feelings of the politicians at aol or where ever aol got this from.
Empathy I'm amazed at how nonchalantly you state that this will happen. The assassination of Barak Obama would be an unimaginable tragedy for our country. It would set us back 50 years and erase the all of the racial harmony we've developed to this point. It would crush our already weak cultural standing in the world. If Barak Obama was killed it would be like a nail in the coffin of U.S. supremacy. By the way, he is a man with children and a wife. To joke about him getting murdered is a telling sign that your parents may have not taught you empathy very well. Not that it matters......your parents will be killed in a horrible car wreck on their way home from work. How does that feel?
I don't think his parents are running for president now are they? Although what he said was a little much, I think what you said pushed the limits. If you can honestly say you care more about a national leader than your parents then you should be in politics with all of the other politicians with hardly a heart out there to give a damn about individuals other than the ones they love. They always try to help everyone because of this there must be sacrifices. There's no such thing as a perfect leader.
He is a parent My point is that you should not say something like that about anybody. When you throw that statement around like fact it makes you look like a racist and it will inevitably hurt someone. The same way saying his parents will die tonight, I'm sure some ignorant fool at the school that Obama's daughters go to has spread this crap. I've been hearing way to much of it. Remember, if you help spread something like this you help to keep our country's racist mentality going and almost make it seem acceptable. If he doesn't want it said about his parents, don't say it about someone else's parent. Show some empathy and stop repeating what you hear bigoted people say to you.
You didnt read the line above that. Did i state ANYWHERE that that sentence was my personal opinion? I am merely stating that that is how alot of kids in my high school felt. While it undoubtably would be a bad thing, can you honestly tell me its not a possibility? I mean, people get shot for wearing barack obama t-shirts. Dont assume that i want him killed or that im a doomsayer or something, and dont assume im JOKING, of all things, about something like that, because i am not joking. I dont want him killed and i dont think it would be good or funny, but i am stating it is a very real possibility. And again, I in no way implied that was my own personal opinion. Now, my opinion is that it could happen, not that it will.