An Alternative Solution to "Invasion Statistics 101": Not that it wasnt well thought out or well presented, but I think the other invasion design thread (When designing Invasion maps remember basic laws of probability) is a little over the top mathwise. Nobody is going to forge with a calculator... -My easier to follow math: If an offense gets 1 point per stage win then an offense should be set up to win each stage at the following percentages. Stage 1: 65-70% Stage 2: 35-40% Stage 3: 60-65% Reasoning: -The first stage should be almost an easy win for the offense. If the offense is denied on the opening stage it will lead to frustrated players and not much fun for the losers. The defenders also should be forced to fall back so that they can get that feel of the invasion storyline where they will actually have to fall back to a better defensive position. In addition the second stage needs to be achieved so that players can get a chance to experience all of the map and open it up a lot more. -In the second stage, many assaults should fail. If possible the round should have by far the longest time limit (Im not familiar with the rules) and it should feel like "meatgrinder warfare" on both sides. Winning this round should truly be an accomplishment on the offense's part. The defense should be holed up tight in and near the base, except for a few players scouting outside in wharthogs. The defense should have enough ordnance for vehicles to be countered, but vehicles should still be a viable attacking option. In the end, the offense's success should require a mix of infantry and vehicles.The objectives to be captured to trigger the next round should be quite literally the doorstep of the defense's base. -In the final stage, the offense should be just pooping on the defense. All barriers have been broken and the offense marches inside to retrieve their treasure. Save for heroic plays by defenders, the offense should be granted a win here. It is important to avoid a lot of close combat gameplay inside the base. In my vision, the base would just be a relatively spacious area without vehicles similar in size to Last Resort's base. It needs many entrances, but you are all educated forgers who already know that. The defense needs to spawn in position to feel like they have a chance, but once the objective is out of the base, it should be a sure win for the offense. In terms of points, the third round should kind of be a bonus point for winning the second round. This round should be short to avoid the slaughter of defenders who, unfortunately, will be inevitably spawn trapped. Lemme know what you guys think of this and what u guys are thinking for invasion map layouts. I based a lot of my thought process off the map Boneyard from the Beta. From what I remember, Boneyard played very well and followed these guidelines for the most part. I'll admit I dont have much intention of forging an invasion map, but hopefully this will inspire some critical thinking in all the new forgers who cant wait to forge one. That way when I go to find an invasion map for customs, there are more better ones and less bad ones to sort through.
.70 * .40 * .65 = .182 18.2% chance of attackers winning the round. Sound fair? And that's with your higher numbers. I knew what I was writing. The numbers worked out. You'd just need to work around my numbers a little bit, but you could always end up with a scenario like yours. You just have to remember momentum and carry on weapons. Of course it works with rounds done with points, but nonetheless. Attackers will win far less than defenders. They have 49% of getting to round 3 alone. Let alone winning it.
You really have to base it off of points per stage from how I see it. But anyhow, I was shooting for 20-30% total win for the offense. And I really am not so worried about the scoring, Im just shooting for players to have fun. After u make a map u can tweak it so the numbers become more desirable. All I really want to have on an invasion map is: -the offense pretty much always win 1 stage so that they feel accomplished -in the second round, the player gets a sense of how spacious and varied the map is -little repitiveness although the whole thing is a repeating process (spawn, push forward, die, spawn, push forward, die)
you dont need to win all 3 to win the round. actually, there are no winners or losers in a round, since only one team can score points. and i think that those numbers should be even lower, and progressively decrease making tier 3 the most difficult. it should be pretty difficult for a team to win all three tiers, since that guarantees at worst a draw for the game.
I think that you might want a bit longer game to play though. If you do, check these numbers out. Broken into a graph with 50% chances of winning a round, here are all possible point outcomes. This includes the idea that winning as a defender grants no points. I also give the chance of each happening. W/L says whether or not the first team won. Basing percentages on the 80% attacker win round. T is tie, obviously. 3-3 26% T 3-2 7% W 3-1 8% W 3-0 10% W 2-3 7% L 2-2 2% T 2-1 2% W 2-0 3% W 1-3 8% L 1-2 2% L 1-1 3% T 1-0 3% W 0-0 4% T 0-1 3% L 0-2 3% L 0-3 10% L Chance of team 1 winning: 33% Chance of team 2 winning: 33% Chance of a tie: 34% So as you can see, this method is very fair. Equal chance of winning, losing, and getting a tie for each team. But, let's compare this to the 50% strategy. 3-3 2% T 3-2 2% W 3-1 3% W 3-0 6% W 2-3 2% L 2-2 2% T 2-1 3% W 2-0 6% W 1-3 3% L 1-2 3% L 1-1 6% T 1-0 12.5% W 0-3 6% L 0-2 6% L 0-1 12.5% L 0-0 25% T Chance of team one winning: 32.5% Chance of team two winning: 32.5% Chance of a tie: 35% Now, seeing as I rounded all of my calculations, I can say for a fact that those numbers are actually 33.333...% in every case. But let me give you some new numbers that might make you think my method is superior. Going with method 1, my method: Chance of the game going for 6 rounds: 42% Chance of the game going for 5 rounds: 20% Chance of the game going for 4 rounds: 29% Chance of the game going for 3 rounds: 6% Chance of the game going for 2 rounds: 4% I realize that that equal 101%, remember rounding, so these are fairly close to correct number. Notice that there is an extremely high chance of a game going on for a long time. Chance of the game going for 6 rounds: 8% Chance of the game going for 5 rounds: 12% Chance of the game going for 4 rounds: 30% Chance of the game going for 3 rounds: 25% Chance of the game going for 2 rounds: 25% Notice that there is a greater chance of the game being shorter in the 50% method. My point? If you want a long match, go my method. If you want a short match, use your method. This is probably going to go in my guide now.
I agree with what you're saying now red earth. That why in my post I put the second round should have a long time limit. Im thinking like 6-7 min, partially because the maps are large but mostly because it will be extremely difficult to control ground right in front of the defenders base and advance to stage 3. That way even if the attackers lose the second stage, the game still plays at about 15-20 min per game.